lyg

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, Kirby and First Fed Financial were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• UBS downgraded Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to Neutral from Buy after channel checks indicated orders are slowing, which gives them concern over the July quarter.
  
• Stephens cut Kirby (NYSE: KEX) to Equal Weight from Overweight as they believe a good 2008 is already priced into shares and that the liquid barge industry cycle may be nearing a top.
  
• First Fed Financial (NYSE: FED) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, citing credit quality deterioration.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan removed HB Fuller (NYSE: FUL) from its Focus List.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded SourceFire (NASDAQ: FIRE) to Sector Perform from Outperform.
  
• Goldman cut Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) to Sell from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Turkcell (TKC), Lloyds TSB Group (LYG), DSW Inc (DSW) and the European telecom sector were today's most noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded shares of Turkcell (NYSE: TKC) to Overweight from Neutral following a meeting with management, as they are more comfortable with the company's growth prospects.

• Citigroup upgraded Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) Group to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's free cash flow generation will drive faster dividend growth.

• Matrix finds DSW Inc (NYSE: DSW) shares fairly valued at current levels and believes improving pricing is leading to higher profit margins and upgraded shares to Hold from Sell.

• Credit Suisse upgraded the European Telecom sector to Overweight from Market Weight to reflect higher forecasts for mobile growth...

OTHER UPGRADES:

• HSBC upgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Overweight from Neutral.

• Lehman upgraded Internet Initiative Japan Inc (NASDAQ: IIJI) to Overweight from Equal Weight.

• Magna International (NYSE: MGA) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lloyds TSB Group PLC (NYSE: LYG) is a favorite conservative stock idea for 2007 from Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus.

"While it is not the Lloyd's of London of specialty insurance fame," points out Adamo, "this London-based financial services powerhouse has roots dating back to 1765, and operates in three segments: U.K. retail banking; insurance and investments; and wholesale and international banking. It also provides brokerage, asset management, and pension services.

"It's not exactly exciting, but I think it will noticeably outpace the market in 2007. What it has going for it is financial clout, with a $60 billion market capitalization and a current dividend yield of 5.7%. Growth in earnings is expected to come in around 12.5% from 2006 to 2007.

"Lloyds currently trades for 11.25 times expected 2007 EPS of $3.86 per share. I look for total return to come in at around 18% in 2007. Lloyds' high yield provides cover in a down market, and may add extra price appreciation as investors go for yield in a falling market. That could push total return to the 25% range.

"Another significant factor in its favor to consider is the likely appreciation of the British pound sterling against the U.S. dollar, which will provide a boost to returns for U.S. investors."